In the previous part of this series, I looked at how Japan is exploring several pathways toward net zero, including renewables, hydrogen, ammonia and carbon capture. Many of these pathways have one thing in common. They are not only about building new infrastructure, but also about adapting the energy and industrial system that already exists.
This is especially true for CCUS.
In Japan, large-scale deployment is still limited, but the ambitions are now clear. The government’s 2023 CCS Long-Term Roadmap targets full-scale commercial deployment from 2030 onwards. The ongoing “Business Model Construction Phase” aims to demonstrate 6 - 12 million tonnes of CO₂ storage per year by 2030, followed by rapid expansion toward 120 - 240 million tonnes per year by 2050. That would represent roughly 10 - 20% of Japan’s current annual emissions.
In 2024, Japan also enacted the CCS Business Act, creating a legal framework for CO₂ storage and transport. This is important because CCUS is not only a technical question. It also requires clear rules for who can store CO₂, who is responsible for monitoring it, and how long-term storage liability is handled.
Figure 1. Japan’s CCS roadmap implies a major scale-up from demonstration scale toward commercial storage volumes (data from METI / IEA).
The ambition is large, but the starting point is still modest. Japan’s perhaps best-known CCS project, Tomakomai, was a demonstration rather than a commercial facility. It injected around 300 000 tonnes of CO₂ in total between 2016 and 2019, corresponding to roughly 0.1 Mt per year during operation. Injection was stopped after the target was reached, and monitoring has continued since.
More recently, JOGMEC, the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, expanded its portfolio to nine “Japanese Advanced CCS Projects”. These projects cover several sectors, including power, oil refining, steel, chemicals, pulp and paper, and cement. According to JOGMEC, if the selected projects proceed as planned, the combined storage potential could reach around 20 million tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2030.
Notably, these projects are not yet operational. They are currently in basic engineering, supplemented by storage potential assessments and exploratory drilling. Final investment decisions are expected around the end of Japan’s fiscal year 2026, meaning by March 2027.
Whether Japan can reach its 2030 CCS storage target remains uncertain, especially given the current pressure on energy security, public funding, supply chains and international cooperation. The legal framework and project pipeline are now developing, but moving from studies and demonstrations to operating CCS value chains is a major step. Some commercial CCS activity by around 2030 still appears possible, but only if the leading projects reach their targeted final investment decisions by March 2027 and then avoid the delays that have affected many CCS projects globally. Reaching the full 6 - 12 million tonnes per year target, or the higher 20 million tonnes per year potential from the advanced project pipeline, looks challenging.
Figure 2. Japan’s Advanced CCS Projects cover several industrial sectors and both domestic and overseas storage concepts (image from JOGMEC press release).
From an engineering perspective, the key point is that carbon capture is rarely just a simple add-on. It affects much more than the capture unit itself. Flue gas handling, steam and power demand, cooling water, plot space, tie-ins, controls, maintenance access, constructability, CO₂ conditioning, interim storage and CO₂ export all need to be integrated into the existing plant design. At the same time, the plant needs to continue operating as much as possible, with limited disruption, manageable parasitic losses and acceptable CAPEX and OPEX.
This is why retrofit projects are often more complicated than they may first appear. Existing plants were not originally designed for carbon capture. Space may be limited, utilities may already be constrained, and existing structures, pipe racks, access routes and shutdown windows may define what is possible. For plants that have been operated and modified over many years, the available drawings and plant information may also be incomplete or out of date. The challenge is therefore not only to make the capture technology work, but to make it fit into a plant that already has its own logic, limitations and established ways of working.
Figure 3. A CCUS retrofit is more than the simple addition of a CO₂ capture unit. It must be integrated with existing plant utilities, layout, operation, transport, storage and, in the wider CCUS value chain, even long-term monitoring.
Cement is a good example. A large share of cement emissions comes from the raw material itself, not only from fuel combustion. This means that even if the fuel is changed, much of the CO₂ remains. That is why carbon capture is often discussed as one of the main options for deep emission reductions in cement.
The same logic applies to other hard-to-abate industries. Steel, chemicals, and waste-to-energy plants all have emissions that are difficult to remove through electrification alone. In many cases, the practical question becomes how much can be reduced through efficiency, fuel switching and process changes, and what role CCUS should play for the remaining emissions.
There is also the question of where the captured CO₂ goes. Capture alone is not enough. The CO₂ must be stored permanently or used in a way that genuinely avoids new emissions. Japan is therefore studying domestic offshore storage, ship transport and international CCS value chains. This makes CCUS not only a plant-level issue, but also an infrastructure question.
For me, this makes CCUS one of the more interesting parts of Japan’s energy transition. It is not the simplest route, and it may not be the right solution everywhere. But for existing heavy industry, it is one of the few options that can address emissions from assets that are already built and expected to operate for many years.
This is also where engineering companies, including Cyient, can contribute in a practical way. Early-phase studies, option screening, cost estimates, utility and layout assessments, and later detailed piping, supports and tie-ins are all needed to connect the existing plant with the CO₂ capture unit. These are not always the most visible parts of the energy transition, but they often decide whether a concept can become a working project.
By March 2027, it should become clearer how many of the planned Japanese Advanced CCS Projects are ready to move toward final investment decision. Regardless of the outcome, CCUS should probably be seen neither as a silver bullet nor as an irrelevant distraction.
It is one possible tool in a difficult transition, and it shows clearly how much of decarbonization is about modifying existing systems rather than simply replacing them.
About the Author
Johan Fagerlund (DSc, Tech) leads plant engineering delivery at Cyient Japan, focusing on sustainability and energy transition. As Global Energy Transition Manager, he drives decarbonization strategies across infrastructure sectors. With a doctorate in technology, Johan combines deep engineering expertise with a commitment to building a cleaner, more resilient future